Tag Archives: McCain

Credit Default Swaps, AIG, and the Fed – Will $123 Billion Be Enough?

Update on the Fed’s $123 billion in emergency lending to AIG.


For those intrigued by my credit default swap post, there is a good article in yesterday’s New York Times. The article asks, “where are the funds being lent to AIG by the Fed going within the company”

The American International Group is rapidly running through $123 billion in emergency lending provided by the Federal Reserve, raising questions about how a company claiming to be solvent in September could have developed such a big hole by October. Some analysts say at least part of the shortfall must have been there all along, hidden by irregular accounting.

The article goes on to describe that accounting for its derivatives trades, largely the selling of credit default swap protection, had been severely lacking oversight. As more attention was drawn to the activities of AIG’s Financial Products group, an alarming picture began to emerge.

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It’s an Especially Good Year to Be a Wealthy High School Senior

How the Credit Crisis Will Make it Easier for Rich Kids to Get Into Their College of Choice


You may have heard that a male student interested in the humanities has a better chance of being accepted to a prestigious liberal arts college than a comparably qualified female candidate. How about the tale of the gifted athlete with sub-par grades who gets a full-ride to “State” on a football scholarship; everyone tells that story. Have you heard the one about the rich kid from the Upper West Side who gets in because his family is wealthy? This isn’t the kid whose family’s name is plastered all over the football stadium, dining hall, and library; he’s just your everyday, average, wealthy student who doesn’t need financial aid. The sad reality is that all but a select few of this country’s institutions of higher education take a student’s ability to pay into consideration when making an admissions decision.The economic realities of college admissions run deeper and darker than most people know.

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What is a Credit Default Swap and Why Should I Care?

Credit Default Swaps – A Primer

A credit default swap is a type of credit derivative. Credit derivatives “derive” their value from an underlying credit instrument; generally the bonds of sovereign nations or the bonds of a corporate entity. In recent years, credit derivatives have been created that are based obligations rather than entities; one common reference obligation are asset backed securities based on home equity loans.

A credit default swap is a contract that allows one to take or reduce credit exposure. The contract is between the two parties and does not directly involve the underlying reference entity. A credit default swap is essentially an insurance policy where one entity pays a premium to a second entity to take on the risk of a loss.

Let’s look at a fictitious example.

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Nouriel Roubini’s Predictions get Freaky

Yesterday I wrote about Professor Nouriel Roubini’s predictions for continued stress in the U.S. economy. Roubini is predicting a prolonged recession lasting two years or longer. While I was writing, Roubini was in London predicting wide-spread market panic that would require a suspension of trading and temporary closure of the markets. (Video) and (Article)

Panic, check; suspension of trading, sort of; closure of markets, let’s hope not.

This morning trading in the S&P 500 futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange triggered “circuit-breaker” rules designed to curb the downdraft of futures trading. According to marketwatch.com:

The CME limits the S&P 500 futures to a drop of a 60 points and the Nasdaq 100 futures to a drop of 85 points during electronic action.
They can still be traded electronically, only they can’t trade below those levels. Those contracts can fall more once the pits open at 9:30 a.m. Eastern. See external link on CME rules.
Keep your fingers crossed at 9:30 a.m. And someone, please, get Nouriel Roubini a pair of rose-colored glasses before he issues his next prediction.

As an antidote to the gloom…
More puppies:

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Obama and McCain – Where do they Stand on Immigration Reform?

You could be forgiven if you don’t know where the candidates stand on immigration. With the financial market meltdown in full swing and a full-blown media circus surrounding $150,000 shopping sprees and fair-weather fans, the press hasn’t had much time to talk about immigration. The Brookings Institution has published this fact sheet comparing the candidate’s plans that is worth reading.

So where do McCain and Obama stand on important features of immigration reform? As it turns out, despite what the ads would have you believe, not too far apart.

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Recession Will be Three Times Deeper than Recent Ones – NYU Economist Nouriel Roubini’s Grim Economic Outlook

The worst is still ahead…

Nouriel Roubini, (aka Dr. Doom), has been amazingly prescient with his accurate predictions of how the credit crisis would unfold.

He spoke at an NYU-Stern School of Business Panel last week and predicted the financial-market meltdown would trigger a prolonged recession lasting 18-24 months and quite possibly more. He said hopes for a sharp “v-shaped” recovery have been dashed in recent weeks and that the United States is in for a long recession and a slow recovery.

Roubini argues that the worst is still to come, with more ominous headlines about economic measure like unemployment and GDP on the horizon. Among the headline-grabbing statistics Roubini predicts unemployment will rise to 9% and that home prices will fall an additional 15% from already depressed levels.

Illuminating the headwinds facing a housing recovery, Anthony Freed blogs about the coming Alt-A and Option ARM mortgage resets. One picture from Anthony’s blog tells a thousand frightening words about the pain that is still to come in the housing market:

Click here to view in larger window

Click here to view in larger window

Roubini cites several variables in addition to the eight-hundred pound housing gorilla that will prolong the downturn and temper the economic rebound:

Erosion of corporate earnings – Roubini feels that current estimates for corporate earnings are far too optimistic and expectations haven’t been adjusted to the new reality that is just now presenting itself. He contends that corporate earnings will surprise to the downside, leading to more pain in the financial markets. As the credit crisis bleeds into the broader economy, the range of companies affected by the economic slow-down will not be limited to financials, but will spread to all sectors of the economy.

Further blow-ups in credit default swaps – Roubini predicts that the economic stress will lead to corporate debt defaults outside of the financial sector. These defaults will trigger additional losses in the CDS market. Roubini has upped his estimate of total credit losses from $1-2 trillion to $3trillion. Estimates of the total value of credit default swaps in the market vary, but most are in the neighborhood of $55 trillion. To put that number in perspective, SEC Chairman Christopher Cox wrote about AIG’s CDS exposure:

As large as A.I.G.’s swaps exposure was, it represented only 0.8 percent of the $55 trillion in credit-default swaps outstanding — this total market is more than the gross domestic product of all nations on earth combined.

With that level of exposure to credit default swaps in the marketplace, even a small number of defaults can trigger major losses for the sellers of swap protection.

— more on credit default swaps in a future post —

Continued deleveraging – Hedgefunds are experiencing a double-whammy of massive redemptions requests from investors and margin calls from banks and prime-brokers whose appetite for risk is suddenly much smaller. Many of these hedgefunds are levered up by two, five, ten times, or more; that’s before they invest in derivatives that effectively leverage their balance sheets even further. Funds are being forced to sell and sell fast. Roubini believes the deleveraging will continue for some time and will add fuel to the current market panic. It is a vicious cycle that is difficult to break.

Spillover to emerging markets – We’ve seen it with Iceland which nationalized the nation’s three largest banks and is now in talks with Norway and the IMF after talks with Russia ended without a deal rescue its failed banking system. It doesn’t look like it will be a very merry Christmas for China either; the soft economy in the United States has led to the closure of many factories that make toys for Hasbro and Mattel. The United States has been the world’s consumer of last resort. As the economy in the U.S. enters a recession it will hit the emerging markets that produce the T.V.’s, toys, and iPods that American consumers have wantonly consumed on a debt-fueled diet for the past decade. Natural resource exporters will also feel the pain as demand for oil, gas, steel, and other commodities slows alongside the global economic growth.

Roubini is painting a very dark picture; perhaps Joe Biden had just seen Roubini on CNBC when he advised people to “gird their loins” for the coming challenges we will face.

Pretty dark stuff… how about some puppies to cheer you up?

Want more posts like this? Leave a comment below…

Coming up…

Candidates on Immigration – check back this evening
Credit Default Swap Primer

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The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What It Means

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